On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race looking out for its best interests. The following example will give you a hint of Taleb’s intuition:Ĭonsider a turkey that is fed every day. They are retrospectively predictable, thus explainable only after they have already happened. They are extremely hard to predict with historical data, Taleb defines Black Swan events as a composition of three key fundamental factors: As the debate continues, investors and enthusiasts alike must weigh the potential rewards against these risks.Dr. His skepticism serves as a reminder that while cryptocurrencies offer new opportunities, they also come with risks and uncertainties.
These latest tweets add to Taleb’s ongoing critique of Bitcoin, contributing to the broader debate about the role and value of cryptocurrencies in the global economy. He has previously compared “Cryptoism” to communism, labeled Bitcoin an “open Ponzi” and a “failed currency,” and referred to it as a “magnet for idiots” and a “fool detector.” His comments reflect his belief that Bitcoin is not a reliable hedge against economic uncertainties and that its value is more affected by these events than proponents of Bitcoin as a hedge might suggest.
Why It Matters: Taleb’s recent tweets are the latest in a series of criticisms he has leveled against Bitcoin and its proponents. This statement appears to be a critique of those who justify their investment in Bitcoin based on its past performance, which has seen significant increases in value since its inception. He argued that investors should base their decisions on today’s current price, not prices from years past, such as those from 2014. In a follow-up tweet, Taleb emphasized the importance of future performance over past performance in finance.
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